Article Dans Une Revue Weather and Climate Extremes Année : 2026

Using analogue methods to identify trends in circulation patterns of midlatitude heatwaves

Résumé

Circulation analogues are useful tools for extreme event assessment. They can be used to assess changes in the dynamical conditions associated with a specific extreme event. Here, we use circulation analogues to investigate a set of six midlatitude heat extremes, spanning all midlatitude continents. We objectively assess some of the decisions required when selecting circulation analogues. We show the choice of analogue domain, climatic variable, and similarity metric influence how well the analogues capture the magnitude of the meteorological hazard of the event itself. We show that, due to the complex nature of the climate system, each event requires individual assessment to determine how to select analogues that best represent the hazard. For the six case studies, we present an assessment of analogues using the workflow identified. Some events show significant dynamical changes between 1950-1980 and 1994-2024, which could act to amplify extreme heat.

We show that, for midlatitude heatwaves, circulation analogues can provide useful information about temporal changes in circulation patterns of similar events. We provide a workflow for the use of circulation analogues within operational detection and attribution studies, with a publicly available online Climate Explorer tool.

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hal-05608414 , version 1 (30-04-2026)

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Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Robert Vautard. Using analogue methods to identify trends in circulation patterns of midlatitude heatwaves. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2026, 52, pp.100898. ⟨10.1016/j.wace.2026.100898⟩. ⟨hal-05608414⟩
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